Author: Ron Young

We are going into 2023 with a very different real estate market than we have had in both 2021 and 2022. Obviously, the significant rise in interest rates over the past year and the negative effects high inflation has had, have been major contributions to the public pulling back their spending, as they seem to be in a “wait and see what happens from here” mindset towards buying or selling real estate.

By the end of June 2022, we were close to the end of June 2021 numbers but were starting to feel the effects of the economic conditions as mentioned above. The 2^nd half of the year we saw a large year over year drop, and by the end of the year we were down to 24% below 2021 in the number of total sales for the year, and 11% in dollar volume. However, prices are holding quite well, overall; down approximately 10%. We are told inflation is slowing which gives us hope the interest rates will stabilize as long as that trend continues.

The other factor that is having quite an impact is that we are at a many year, if not all time low in inventory on market listings. This is good for sellers but certainly not for buyers. It leaves some people hesitant to put their home on the market, as they worry once they sell, they may not be able to find a home.

It has certainly been quite the run, like our market has never seen before. Prices, up 40% since the start of Covid are now backing off a bit – we will keep you updated on what is happening from here.

In my opening remarks of last year’s blog, I mentioned most would be very happy to turn their calendar to 2021 for many reasons. One thing would be hard to improve on though and that was the year our Real Estate Market had. Well, it didn’t only get matched, it got blown right out of the water, and there are no signs of slowing down.

The contributing factors remain the same. We have become a very popular place to want to be, as many continue to move back and many are discovering us from different parts of the country, lately especially Ontario. Affordability and lifestyle are major pluses they are finding attractive.

As of the end of November, the numbers have been astounding. We certainly have never thought our market would ever go to the level we have attained. Our total sales volume, which is all sale prices added together is up 60%, and the total number of sales is also up 50%. A major problem for buyers is inventory as we have a shortage of homes. Most sales are happening very quickly, so it is great for sellers. I would be happy to educate any buyer or seller on what I can do for you as my experience will be very valuable to help you navigate this lively, competitive market. It’s been another year of over 100 sales for me and I continue to love my job and as you can see by my testimonials give professional, prompt, honest service.

Most will be very happy to turn the calendar to 2021 and say “good riddance, 2021 can only be better” – but we are not sure that can apply to the Real Estate Market, as it has been a big-time record year. To the end of November 2020 the total number of sales are up 16% and the total dollar volume sold is up 27%. Unbelievable considering we lost 4-6 weeks in the initial lockdown.
The market has been particularly strong in the Maritimes, but good pretty much across the country. In my view, the explanation for this involves the following factors:

-Very low number of listings for buyers to choose from (often resulting in many showings the first day on the market with multiple offers presented);

-Even this year many have still been moving here, in some cases buying virtually. With the new reality of being able to work from home, people are choosing our area over the busy and expensive Ontario cities, and we continue to attract retirees. As we hopefully get back to “normal” many more now know that we are a “safe” place, so this trend will continue.

-As people spend more time at home, they choose to put money in a “nicer” home, using money taken from investments and that which would have been used on vacations, etc. to upgrade. Also, rental rates significant increase in the last few years has made it cheaper to buy than rent for many young people and has made the multi-family investment property market even crazier than the home market.

-A number of positive things also happening in our area business-wise should ensure that our market remains strong for the foreseeable future.

We welcome all good people – to the greatest place in the world to live, other than maybe a beach in the Caribbean. ☀︎

What a year we have had, wow! Unexpected – yes, will we take it – YES! Coming into this year, the speculation or forecast was that the market would be below/see slightly less activity than 2018 but that currently has not been the case.

To the end of November we are up almost 11% higher in the number of sales, and close to that in total dollar volume. And that is with 15% fewer listings from last year; sales up, inventory down, no wonder properties are selling quickly and often with multiple offer situations.

Of course, many people are asking, “what is driving the market?”- it certainly is not our economy. What is happening is, the 3 major age groups are all buying and selling. Millennials have certainly hit the market strong again this year, with a lot of first-time buyers coming from that group. Then there are the baby boomers selling – in many cases, sizing down. As well, there are their parents, a large age group that in many cases are getting into garden home or one-level living with the older end of that group moving into apartments and senior housing.

We are also very pleased to see many people moving back to the greater Saint John area to retire; some with roots here having moved away to work 20-35 years ago, some with family still here and others from across the country to take advantage of this beautiful area and our great housing prices.

To all our valued clients we wish you the very best of the holiday season and a healthy, joyful and prosperous New Year!

Looking back on 2018, we are continuing with the upswing in the market that started in 2017. If you refer back to my last few blogs, you will see how much we have improved over 2016 and the 5 years before that. We had a slower start in 2018 than 2017 in part due to a stalled market as we dealt with the flood situation, but once June and then July hit which was a fantastic month, we have continued in surpassing 2017 figures; not so much in the number of sales which has been consistent with 2017, but certainly in dollar volume which means average sale price is finally on the rise.

We are still not in a good place as far as our economy goes, therefore very few people moving in for jobs in our area, but we have seen a number of buyers coming back from out west and Ontario, most with roots in the Saint John area taking advantage of the large amounts of equity they have built up in those thriving markets and retiring in the Saint John greater area. Also, with many of the homes coming on the market are baby boomers sizing down, with their parents being of the age that they are making changes as well.

In the Greater Saint John Market, total sales through our board was $409,805,571, up 5% from 2017 with the total number of sales slightly down from 2365 to 2334, therefore, showing average sale price per sale has increased.

Here is he breakdown of the sales over the last 3 years:

	2016	2017	2018
Commercial	$7,708,750	$8,305,200	$10,409,000
Multi Fam	$11,800,457	$16,273,722	$25,933,293
Land	$9,702,563	$11,366,629	$10,371,375
Residential	$320,226,661	$352,763,952	$363,046,903
Total	$349,783,431	$390,859,503	$409,805,571

 

My business has been steadily increasing over the last few years as I have been working as hard as ever, striving to give down to earth, honest service, knowledgeable advice and making sure I treat all clients the way I would want to be treated. Please take a minute to review a few of my testimonials on this site. Always willing to help any way you need. Call, text, or email me at ron@ronyoung.ca and see how long it takes me to get back to you 🙂

I would like to thank you all who are tuning into my blog. The statistics I am quoting are directly from the Saint John Real Estate Board’s figures and they accurately tell the story of what is happening in the marketplace. Many are surprised that this year has been as good as last as we had a hard time explaining the increase in business last year, so thought it may not continue, but it has. Total sales in dollar volume from January to the end of July this year is $240,000,000, last year that figure was $228,500,000 (both numbers rounded off)
Here are the breakdown of these sales:

2017
Commercial $4,039,200
Multi Family $9,056,272
Land $6,047,878
Residential $209,424,287
Total $228,500,000

2018
Commercial $7,152,500
Multi Family $17,789,780
Land $5,978,275
Residential $208,003,003
Total $240,000,000

We were consistently behind until July’s very strong figures put us past last year. We were certainly affected by the spring flood situation as it significantly slowed activity for a good 2-3 weeks in late April and the first weeks of May. So a very strong July was in part due to making up for that lost time, as well as a very good June.

Average sale price is up only about 2% on residential sales which isn’t a lot comparing to most Canadian city markets but it is reasonably consistent. And fortunately, very seldom does our market decrease in average price while many can fluctuate drastically.

We have come to the end of another year and it has been a good one, Real Estate wise, in the Greater Saint John area for sure. If you have been following my blog this news is not a surprise to you. This trend has continued to the end of 2017 as we have now surged ahead of 2008 in dollar volume sales. Again this has all been rather unexpected as it is an increase in dollar volume over 2016 by 12% and in the number of sales it has been a 9% increase, which is a significant upswing, especially with the situation  our local and provincial economy is in.

As a final number ending 2017 we ended up almost 4% ahead of 2008 in dollar volume with 7% fewer sales, therefore prices are up over 10% since 2008. We were running even throughout the year in dollar volume but a very strong last few months had us pull ahead of 2008. We are cautiously optimistic going into the New Year, as it has been an encouraging start. There are new mortgage rules that someone with a minimum down payment of less than 20% has to qualify at an interest rate of close to 2% higher, another piece of protection for the banks.

Some of the other numbers for the year are as follows: 5630 listings, virtually the same as 2016 but up 13% from 2008. That is one reason the market doesn’t seem as brisk as it was in 2008, more listings, fewer sales, but at least prices are up. As always if you have any questions let me know, I would love to hear from you and I’m here to help with any and all of your Real Estate needs.