Cheers to 2019!

What a year we have had, wow! Unexpected – yes, will we take it – YES! Coming into this year, the speculation or forecast was that the market would be below/see slightly less activity than 2018 but that currently has not been the case.

To the end of November we are up almost 11% higher in the number of sales, and close to that in total dollar volume. And that is with 15% fewer listings from last year; sales up, inventory down, no wonder properties are selling quickly and often with multiple offer situations.

Of course, many people are asking, “what is driving the market?”- it certainly is not our economy. What is happening is, the 3 major age groups are all buying and selling. Millennials have certainly hit the market strong again this year, with a lot of first-time buyers coming from that group. Then there are the baby boomers selling – in many cases, sizing down. As well, there are their parents, a large age group that in many cases are getting into garden home or one-level living with the older end of that group moving into apartments and senior housing.

We are also very pleased to see many people moving back to the greater Saint John area to retire; some with roots here having moved away to work 20-35 years ago, some with family still here and others from across the country to take advantage of this beautiful area and our great housing prices.

To all our valued clients we wish you the very best of the holiday season and a healthy, joyful and prosperous New Year!

REAL ESTATE STILL ON THE RISE!

Looking back on 2018, we are continuing with the upswing in the market that started in 2017. If you refer back to my last few blogs, you will see how much we have improved over 2016 and the 5 years before that. We had a slower start in 2018 than 2017 in part due to a stalled market as we dealt with the flood situation, but once June and then July hit which was a fantastic month, we have continued in surpassing 2017 figures; not so much in the number of sales which has been consistent with 2017, but certainly in dollar volume which means average sale price is finally on the rise.

We are still not in a good place as far as our economy goes, therefore very few people moving in for jobs in our area, but we have seen a number of buyers coming back from out west and Ontario, most with roots in the Saint John area taking advantage of the large amounts of equity they have built up in those thriving markets and retiring in the Saint John greater area. Also, with many of the homes coming on the market are baby boomers sizing down, with their parents being of the age that they are making changes as well.

In the Greater Saint John Market, total sales through our board was $409,805,571, up 5% from 2017 with the total number of sales slightly down from 2365 to 2334, therefore, showing average sale price per sale has increased.

Here is he breakdown of the sales over the last 3 years:

2016 2017 2018
Commercial $7,708,750 $8,305,200 $10,409,000
Multi Fam $11,800,457 $16,273,722 $25,933,293
Land $9,702,563 $11,366,629 $10,371,375
Residential $320,226,661 $352,763,952 $363,046,903
Total $349,783,431 $390,859,503 $409,805,571

 

My business has been steadily increasing over the last few years as I have been working as hard as ever, striving to give down to earth, honest service, knowledgeable advice and making sure I treat all clients the way I would want to be treated. Please take a minute to review a few of my testimonials on this site. Always willing to help any way you need. Call, text, or email me at ron@ronyoung.ca and see how long it takes me to get back to you 🙂

Statistics July 2018

I would like to thank you all who are tuning into my blog. The statistics I am quoting are directly from the Saint John Real Estate Board’s figures and they accurately tell the story of what is happening in the marketplace. Many are surprised that this year has been as good as last as we had a hard time explaining the increase in business last year, so thought it may not continue, but it has. Total sales in dollar volume from January to the end of July this year is $240,000,000, last year that figure was $228,500,000 (both numbers rounded off)
Here are the breakdown of these sales:

2017
Commercial $4,039,200
Multi Family $9,056,272
Land $6,047,878
Residential $209,424,287
Total $228,500,000

2018
Commercial $7,152,500
Multi Family $17,789,780
Land $5,978,275
Residential $208,003,003
Total $240,000,000

We were consistently behind until July’s very strong figures put us past last year. We were certainly affected by the spring flood situation as it significantly slowed activity for a good 2-3 weeks in late April and the first weeks of May. So a very strong July was in part due to making up for that lost time, as well as a very good June.

Average sale price is up only about 2% on residential sales which isn’t a lot comparing to most Canadian city markets but it is reasonably consistent. And fortunately, very seldom does our market decrease in average price while many can fluctuate drastically.

The End of Another Year

We have come to the end of another year and it has been a good one, Real Estate wise, in the Greater Saint John area for sure. If you have been following my blog this news is not a surprise to you. This trend has continued to the end of 2017 as we have now surged ahead of 2008 in dollar volume sales. Again this has all been rather unexpected as it is an increase in dollar volume over 2016 by 12% and in the number of sales it has been a 9% increase, which is a significant upswing, especially with the situation  our local and provincial economy is in.

As a final number ending 2017 we ended up almost 4% ahead of 2008 in dollar volume with 7% fewer sales, therefore prices are up over 10% since 2008. We were running even throughout the year in dollar volume but a very strong last few months had us pull ahead of 2008. We are cautiously optimistic going into the New Year, as it has been an encouraging start. There are new mortgage rules that someone with a minimum down payment of less than 20% has to qualify at an interest rate of close to 2% higher, another piece of protection for the banks.

Some of the other numbers for the year are as follows: 5630 listings, virtually the same as 2016 but up 13% from 2008. That is one reason the market doesn’t seem as brisk as it was in 2008, more listings, fewer sales, but at least prices are up. As always if you have any questions let me know, I would love to hear from you and I’m here to help with any and all of your Real Estate needs.

Saint John Real Estate On The Rise?

It has been close to 2 months since I have written my initial blog, and I am extremely encouraged to see by the numbers that the market has been keeping pace with 2008. I am not surprised, however, as it has been evident with how busy we as agents have been continuously thought out this year.

For closed sales (totally value of Real Estate sold) we are less than 1% behind 2008, on 1759 sales compared to 1998 sales in 2008. This is a significant difference, therefore the average price has certainly gone up. This upswing in business has been great for us Realtors but is also having a positive effect on other businesses. The manager of a large furniture store, for example, tells me business has been terrific for them this year as well. As we all know, if our business is good, there are many positive effects on many businesses around the community.

This time around looking a little deeper into the statistics, I discovered something interesting and very telling explaining why the market does feel much different than it did in 2008. To this point (end of September) there have been 4712 listings (723 more than in 2008) and 1757 expired listings (listings that did not sell), almost TWICE as many as in 2008. This tells us a lot, as there is much more inventory now for buyers to choose from, which slants much more towards being a buyers market than seller’s market.

The Kennebecasis Valley and Uptown Saint John areas continue to lead the market recovery, with activity in other areas of the Greater Saint John region picking up more slowly.

Saint John Real Estate in 2017

I would like to say a friendly hello to all of you on my initial Real Estate blog. We in Saint John are currently celebrating a resurgence in our market, certainly at the best it has been since 2008. The start of a comeback in our market began in 2016 and it has picked up and continued to build on that improvement. Many have asked the question, “Why? What is bringing the resurgence?”

As Realtors we cannot point to the usual explanations for these conditions – we have not seen an increase in employment or large projects to bring people to town. I have personally noticed a number of folks (particularly retirees) moving back to our area to enjoy the beauty and affordable lifestyle, as I and other agents in our office have sold homes recently to people returning from such places as British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario; they certainly appreciate our more affordable housing prices. First time buyer sales have also improved, and many baby boomers have made moves after holding off the last few years on decisions of when and where to move.

To give you an idea of the scale of the improvement to this point: by the end of July 2008, the best year we have ever had we had 1522 sales and total dollar volume of 228 million. In 2017 those number are 1367 sales and dollar volume of 228 million as well. That is a big improvement from our low of 1024 sales and dollar volume of 167 million in 2014 so hopefully it keeps going. The areas we are seeing the most improvement in are the Kennebecasis Valley and Uptown Saint John, most other areas are improving at a much slower pace.

It has taken a few years more for our market to recover than we had hoped; we certainly took a bigger hit than pretty much anywhere else in the country. This was due to the fact that our market was influenced by the proposed 2nd refinery and all of the energy hub talk. Once the recession hit, and with the cancellation of the 2nd refinery, we had to give the 25-30% increase in prices back, that our market had seen between 2005 and 2009. The increases had come from speculation of the boom we were supposed to see, so we had a bigger hole to dig ourselves out of than most. We are hopeful and optimistic this recovery will continue, as it is great for all of us!